Hunting Down The Marriott Hotels Getting More Expensive To Potentially Maximize Travel Certificates

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Related Marriott Travel Packages posts:

• All About Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Travel Packages; The Best Way To Spend Your Starpoints.
• Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!
• Marriott Will Massively Devalue New Miles+Nights Travel Packages In August; Comparing The Value Of The Current Packages To The New Packages
• Another Guess At What Will Happen With Marriott’s Miles+Nights Travel Packages And Which You Should Buy Now Before It’s Too Late!
• Marriott Has No Plans On Letting Us Know What They Plan On Doing With Current Travel Packages, But Don’t Let That Stop You From Taking Advantage Of Them!
• Exploring The Options For A Partial Points Refund Of The Marriott Travel Packages, Which Package Should You Buy Now?

The most exciting arbitrage opportunity in the Marriott/Starwood merger are the travel packages. We know that buying a travel package next month will be significantly more expensive than it is now. We know that Marriott is refusing to say what will happen with current packages. We can presume that they won’t burn goodwill by continuing to sell current travel packages and then pulling a fast one on everyone holding a 7 night hotel certificate.

There are endless theories as to what will happen with these. I’m up to at least 5 as of my most recent post.

My gut feeling was that they would turn these into hotel certificates for the new program, but Starwood’s representative on Flyertalk wrote that members should make every effort to attach certificates to a hotel before the programs merge in order to maximize their value or else they will be cancelled and refunded to “equivalent points” (Click to enlarge):

The base assumption of option 2 as is implied by Starwood Lurker is that if you don’t have your certificates attached to a hotel reservation, you will receive a refund of all points except for 120K Marriott points and your hotel certificates will be cancelled. That’s an amazing outcome, but it won’t help you if your goal is to stay in a hotel going up in category.

Option 5 would allow for a refund based on the points that would be required by an equivalent hotel in the merged program, which could be even more lucrative.

But let’s assume option 2 will win out. Let’s say you want to spend your 7 nights in a hotel like a S. Regis in Aspen, Bal Harbour, Bali, Bora Bora, Florence, Kauai, Maldives, Mallorca, New York, Osaka, Puerto Rico, or Rome. Those hotels will cost just 60K per night or 48K points per night on a 5 night stay if you book them between August-January. (You can also book now and get the rate adjusted). If you spent 540K points for a Tier 4-5 certificate now you would get a refund of 420K points with option 2. That’s more than the 360K points that it would cost for 6 nights in these hotels!

But if you want to book those stays starting next February they will cost between 70K-100K points per night. You can’t use travel certificates now to book SPG hotels. But you can attach certificates now to a hotel, including hotels that are getting more expensive. That will save the certificates from being cancelled and refunded into points with the merger. What will happen to the certificate after that point? That’s anyone’s guess, but it may just retain the higher value.

Here are Marriott’s top miles+nights travel packages for 7 nights in a hotel and United miles. With these you can get up to 132K miles and it’s always worth getting the 132K miles package if you can afford it. Prices are in Marriott points (divide by 3 for the price in Starpoints):

Here is the current SPG chart (with pricing in Marriott points to make things comparable), the current Marriott chart, the new chart coming in August, and the new chart coming next February.

Here are some hotel ideas to potentially maximize your certificates (View the full combined award chart here)

• If you have a category 1-5 certificate you could book the Calgary Airport Marriott. That hotel is currently a category 5 hotel costing 25K points and will be a category 5 in the new program costing 35K points. Other hotels like this include Eugenia de Montijo Autograph Collection, JW Marriott Hotel New Delhi Aerocity, Marriott’s Villas at Doral, Paragraph Resort & Spa Shekvetili Autograph Collection, and the Residence Inn Temecula Murrieta
• If you have a category 6 certificate you could book the Marriott’s Club Son Antem. That hotel is currently a category 6 hotel costing 30K points and will be a category 6 in the new program costing 50K points. No other Marriott category 6 hotel will remain a category 6 hotel.
• If you have a category 7 certificate you could downgrade to the category 6 option or book the Fairfield Inn & Suites Virgin Zion National Park. That hotel is currently a category 7 hotel costing 35K points and will be a category 6 in the new program costing 50K points. Other hotels like this include Marriott Vacation Club Pulse San Diego, Marriott’s Cypress Harbour Villas, Marriott’s Fairway Villas, Marriott’s Imperial Palms Villas, Marriott’s Marbella Beach Resort, Marriott’s Royal Palms, Marriott’s Sabal Palms, Marriott’s St. Kitts Beach Club, and SpringHill Suites Springdale Zion National Park.
• If you have a category 8 certificate you could book the Marriott’s Newport Coast Villas. That hotels is currently a category 8 hotel costing 40K points and will be a category 7 in the new program costing 60K points. Other hotels like this include Marriott’s Kauai Lagoons, Marriott’s Waiohai Beach Club, and Marriott’s Waikoloa Ocean Club.
• If you have a category 9 certificate you could book the Domes of Elounda, Autograph Collection. That hotel is currently a category 9 hotel costing 45K points and will be a category 8 in the new program costing 60K points in August and 85K points in February. No other Marriott category 9 hotel will become a category 8 hotel.
• If you have a tier 1-3 certificate you could downgrade to the category 9 option or you could book The Ritz-Carlton, Toronto. That hotel is currently a tier 3 hotel costing 50K points and will be a category 7 in the new program costing 60K points.  Other hotels like this include The Ritz-Carlton Ras Al Khaimah Al Hamra Beach UAE, The Ritz-Carlton Ras Al Khaimah Al Wadi Desert UAE, and the The Ritz-Carlton Osaka.
• If you have a tier 4-5 certificate you could downgrade to the category 9 option or you could book The Ritz-Carlton New York, Central Park. That hotel is currently a tier 5 hotel costing 70K points and will be a category 8 in the new program costing 60K points in August and 85K points in February. Other hotels like this include Miami Beach EDITION, The Ritz-Carlton Bal Harbour, The Ritz-Carlton Bachelor Gulch, The Ritz-Carlton Grand Cayman, The Ritz-Carlton Hong Kong, The Ritz-Carlton Kyoto, The Ritz-Carlton Lake Tahoe, The Ritz-Carlton Naples, The Ritz-Carlton St. Thomas, and The Ritz-Carlton Tokyo.

Let’s be realistic here. Just because you book a hotel that’s getting more expensive doesn’t mean that the certificate will retain the higher category. Maximizing the potential may very well be limited just for the hotel that you lock in. Then again we have no idea what will happen, so this is a decent strategy to try to maximize your certificate.

For example if you spend 540K Marriott points (180K SPG points) for a tier 4-5 certificate and 132K United miles, and Marriott decides to go with option 2, you would get a refund of 420K points. If you lock in a tier 5 hotel then you will keep that certificate. We have no idea what will happen if you detach the certificate from the hotel after the program merger is complete, but it’s entirely plausible that the certificate will be valid at any hotel systemwide. Next February that would mean the hotel certificate could be worth 510K points (top-tier hotel on standard dates) or even 600K points (top-tier hotel on peak dates)!

It’s yet another potential scenario to ponder in the Marriott travel package saga.

Short on Starpoints/Marriott points?

• You can still buy Starpoints here.
• Earn points on the new Chase Marriott Rewards® Premier Plus Credit Card.

• You must call Marriott at 800-321-7396 if you want to book a miles+nights travel package. They can’t be booked online.
• The miles will post within a few days of the transfer, regardless of when or if you use the 7 night certificate. You may also be able to pay to expedite the mileage posting.
• The 7 night electronic hotel certificate expires in 1 year, though Marriott currently will extend them for 1 additional year if you contact them.
• You don’t need to choose the hotel at the time of a nights+miles redemption.
• The certificate must be used at one property for 7 consecutive nights.
• You can have the certificate issued in anyone’s name.
• You can currently upgrade your hotel certificate by paying the difference in points later on.

Will you buy a travel package before they are devalued next month?

Related Marriott-SPG merger posts:

• AMAZING! Marriott’s New Award Chart Is A Dream Come True For Aspirational Hotels; Roundup Of The Hotel Category Changes 
• Don’t Wait: Book Hotel Awards Now Before The Starwood-Marriott Merger!
• Where Will You Be Able To Use Chase Marriott And Starwood Anniversary Nights?
• Another Guess At What Will Happen With Marriott’s Miles+Nights Travel PackagesAnd Which You Should Buy Now Before It’s Too Late!
• Breaking Down The New Marriott/Starwood Combined Cash+Points And PointSavers Award Charts
• Marriott Will Massively Devalue New Miles+Nights Travel Packages In August;Comparing The Value Of The Current Packages To The New Packages
• Final Opportunity: Get 35% Off The Purchase Of Starwood Starpoints; Buy The Points You Need To Take Advantage Of These 7 Awesome Redemptions!
• Get A 75,000 Point Signup Bonus On The Chase Marriott Rewards Premier Plus Credit Card!
• Live Blog: Follow The Marriott-Starwood Program Merger Announcement!
• 3 Starwood AMEX Cards In The New Marriott Program: A Comparison Chart Of The Good, The Bad, And The Horrific
• Comparison Chart: How Marriott’s August 2018 And February 2019 Award Chart Compares With The Current SPG And Marriott Award Charts
• Marriott Got Almost Everything Perfect, But The Starwood AMEX Cuts Are Just Too Painful
• Rack Up The Starpoints While You Still Can: There Will Be 6 Months Of Amazing Starwood Hotel Bargains!
• No Marriott, The Starwood AMEX Card Will Not Be Richer Than Ever. You Are Just Changing What I’ll Use It For
• Starwood-Marriott Merger FAQs: Answers To Your Questions About Anniversary Nights, Status From Existing Cards, And More
• The Starwood Consumer AMEX And Multiple Chase Marriott Cards Are Being Discontinued! Here’s What You Need To Know About 9 Starwood And Marriott Cards
• Will The Starwood Cards Disappear Or Lose Their Starpoints Signup Bonuses Today? Now Is The Time To Signup If You Don’t Have These Cards Yet!
• AMEX: 3 Starwood Cards Will Be Available For New Applications After The SPG-Marriott Program Merger In August
• Guesstimating Where Marriott Travel Packages Will Work In August; Take Advantage Of Marriott’s Lucrative Miles+Nights Packages Now!
• A Week Later, But No Solid Answers To 3 Contradictory Marriott-Starwood Merger Details That Everyone Wants To Know
• Marriott Clarifies Contradictory SPG Gold Information
• Roundup Of The SPG/Marriott Lifetime Status Rules; Will You Be Able To Hit Lifetime Status This Year Before The Lifetime Program Is Devalued?