8/5/20 News Roundup: COVID-19 Updates, United 232 Survivor’s Guilt, Hyatt Woes, All You Can Fly Deals, El Al Meals At Home, Corona Cruises, Hyatt In Hana, Clorox Wipes, Lost Baggage, And More!

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Dan
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In case you missed it, bumping for your Sunday reading pleasure 🙂

Some stories and deals don’t get their own post, but should get some coverage. Here are some quick takes on stories that caught my eye.

View previous roundups and commentary here.

Featured Trip Report Of The Day:

DDF member Something Fishy booked tickets to Maui during the December 2013 Delta glitch which had first class fares across the country from just $50. With the value of the miles earned, he actually made money on the flights!

His awesome Lanai and Maui trip report can be found here.

The End Of Everything As We Know It? Meh.

Call me an optimist, but I’m tired of the articles saying that we’re at the end of business travel as we know it, or the end of anything else as we know it due to COVID-19.

Some DDF’ers think that “life as we know it will never be the same” or “Travel, Conventions, Dining, Shopping, Work, Theater will not be the same.”

I have a hard time believing that. The vaccines that are being developed are looking extremely promising and there’s no reason to think with the unprecedented sums of money being invested into them that we won’t have widespread availability of an effective and safe vaccine within the next year.

The world survived the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and while it was deadly, it’s merely a blip in the history books. We have been through terrible recessions. I haven’t seen any compelling evidence that the world will never return to life as it was pre-Corona. Sure, it may a couple years to get there, but never be the same?

One of the human brain’s greatest fallibilities is thinking that things will always be as they are now. Whether times are good or bad, nothing stays that way forever. Things also have a way of swinging back to how they were over time. Just ask a typical dieter what happens over time after they lose weight.

The 1918 Spanish flu was far more deadly than COVID19 so far. Other than the tragic death toll that may have reached 100MM, what were the long term changes from that? It was mostly an afterthought until 2020.

I think it’s possible that COVID-19 will accelerate some trends that existed beforehand.

Retail has long been unable to keep up with Amazon and chains are now failing. That would have happened anyway, but COVID-19 certainly accelerated that process.

Rents were falling before COVID-19, and that will be accelerated by COVID-19 as retail moves online and as people move out to the suburbs once again.

People are flocking from the dollar into gold, but that always happens during times of uncertainty and recession. I wouldn’t bet on systemic lasting change away from the dollar.

Travel habits will certainly change for the short term, but corporate travel always slows down during a recession. People are going to need to create trust in person and oversee their production in person. Zoom like products have been said for decades to be overtaking the need to travel and while it may siphon off a small percentage, I don’t see systemic change there either.

Some things will change, such as our relationship with China and companies allowing more employees to work remotely. But overall, I’m quite confident that we will get back to something close to the pre-Corona normal.

Bill Gates, Dr. Fauci: Open Schools

Perhaps one of the toughest public health decisions is whether to reopen schools. How do you weigh the potential for kids being a vector in transmitting COVID-19 (such as in this Georgia camp) against how far behind kids will fall without in-person education? And that doesn’t even factor in parents’ ability to go back to work if the kids are home.

Our local Jewish schools in Cleveland were planning on reopening until the County advised that schools remain closed. There are certainly parents on both sides of the fence, meaning that schools will take heat no matter what they decide. I don’t envy their position.

Bill Gates, who is investing billions into vaccine research and production, has come out in favor of elementary schools opening as he thinks the benefits outweigh the costs. The key part will be keeping teachers safe. Perhaps that means teachers over a certain age, say 50, will have to take a paid leave of absence until the end of the pandemic?

Dr. Fauci has also come out in favor of opening schools, with precautions. It will take a balance to get things right, but hopefully schools will be able to thread that needle.

I’m Enjoying My Brother’s COVID-19 Blog

Early in the pandemic we had a couple of op-eds from JJ’s father-in-law, the Chief of Infectious Diseases at multiple hospitals in Miami, FL.

The country has become a lot more fragmented since then and I’ve enjoyed the blogging of my younger brother Dovid, who is on the COVID front-lines at Miami’s Jackson Memorial Hospital.

His middle ground position on HCQ was very refreshing to read in a time where it seems that everyone needs to take an extreme position. And his follow-up article on being humble and open to learning more was also a gem. Other interesting articles are on the safety of Advil during COVID-19, the new updated guidelines on the contagion period, and the precautions you should take if you wear contacts. 

Keep it up Dr. Dave!

Could Existing T-Cell Immunity Help The Case Of Herd Immunity?

2 weeks ago I went through the debate of whether NY might have some level of herd immunity against COVID-19.

The argument for it is that the case numbers have gone way down, despite not doing anything special that isn’t being tried in other states.

The argument against it is that not enough people had COVID-19 to get to herd immunity. Even using my completely ballpark extrapolation of actual cases in NYC, there was only 3.54MM cases out of a population of 8.39MM. 42% of the population seems low for herd immunity.

But then along came this study showing that a whopping 35% of patients that did not have COVID-19 had T-cells that were reactive against the virus!

It’s possible that these patients had previous coronaviruses that can cause common colds and the body retained the ability to fight back.

If that were found to be true among the general population, it would go a long way to explain why places like NYC seem to have herd immunity, as 42% plus 35% would easily be within the realm of herd immunity.

Now, NYC still had a horrific number of deaths and even knowing that herd immunity can be achieved with lower numbers doesn’t mean that it is something worth trying to achieve. And of course none of this is proven, but it’s certainly a fascinating subject to keep an eye on.

Will A New Take On The N95 Solve Critical Shortages?

The US can’t seem to get enough N95 masks that are needed in medical settings.

MIT engineers took on the challenge to make a better N95 and it seems promising.

They’re reusable, more comfortable, and just as effective. We may have outsourced too much manufacturing, but American ingenuity will find a way.

What Happened To The Flu?

The WSJ has an interesting article on the lack of seasonal flu cases in the Southern Hemisphere.

Apparently all of the mask usage, social distancing, washing of the hands, and other COVID precautions have meant that the flu is close to non-existent in the Southern Hemisphere’s winter.

Another theory is that the lack of travel has meant people didn’t bring the flu with them from the Northern Hemisphere or perhaps it’s because schools are closed?

People have also been vaccinating for the flu at higher rates than normal, which may also be a factor.

Whatever the cause, add it to the list of silver linings in the COVID-19 era and let’s hope it will stay away for our winter as well.

On Dr. Fauci’s Record Setting Baseball Card And His First Pitch

Dr. Fauci threw out the first pitch at National Park in DC. It didn’t exactly go as planned, but his card set a record for sales anyway:

 

Now, I’m certainly not one to talk, but the pitch can be charitably described as socially distant. Perhaps he just didn’t want anyone to catch something?

 

A DansDeals commenter pointed out that his pitch made me look like a Cy Young candidate. 😀

While I’m a die-hard baseball fan, I’m just about as far from an athlete as you can possibly get. That’s why I was perfectly happy with my one-bouncer to home plate before game 7 of the 2016 World Series. Being called up to the mound was one of the most thrilling moments of my life.

 

 

After all. my primary goal was just not to wind up like this:

 

 

Or with the announcer saying this:

 

United 232 Survivor Yisroel Brownstein Opens Up About Survivor’s Guilt

I’ve written about the United flight 232 disaster several times.

The book, “Flight 232: A Story of Disaster and Survival” tells the dramatic story of the flight and how unaccompanied minor Yisroel Brownstein, a 3rd grader, managed to survive.

The Sioux City Journal interviewed Yisroel upon his first return to Sioux City, more than 3 decades after the accident. It’s a tearjerker and my heart goes out to Mr. Brownstein for the pain that he has been through. It’a hard to imagine being in such a situation and I hope that G-d continues to give him the strength to forgive himself for the survivor’s guilt. I sure hope that he also realizes that he has absolutely nothing to feel guilty about.

I’ve corresponded with United 232 lead flight attendant Jan Brown several times about United and the FAA failing to learn the lessons of that flight with regard to having lap children in carseats. Jan Brown is a legend among United flight attendants, and just mentioning her name has worked to get them to turn a blind eye when needed for the sake of child safety.

A Fascinating Step Back In 1970s Era United

This is a really amazing look at 1978 United Airlines as the industry was undergoing deregulation:

Some things worth noting:

  • CEO Richard Ferris would eventually lose his job for trying to juggle too much, as he tried to merge United with Hertz, Westin, and Hilton. It didn’t help that in 1987 he tried to rename the integrated travel company Allegis, which shareholder Donald Trump said sounded like a world class disease.
  • United did finally receive permission to stop flying to Ely, NV in 1982. It remains the smallest destination that had daily United jet service.
  • This might be the craziest part. At 20:30 into the documentary, a DC-20 with registration N1819U can be seen after encountering a birdstrike. A decade later, that same plane would lose all hydraulic controls in the United flight 232 disaster in Sioux City!

American’s Cleveland General Manager Gets Shutdown

No, he didn’t lose his AAdvantage account. AA’s top employee in CLE got fired for taking a shortcut to bypass TSA before taking a flight and it was all caught on video:

Play stupid games, win stupid prizes!

Virgin Atlantic Enters Bankruptcy In The US

Virgin Atlantic has entered Chapter 15 bankruptcy in the US.

I never read past chapter 11, but Business Insider explains that chapter 15 allows multinational companies to coordinate a bankruptcy with assets spread across multiple countries.

Delta owns 49% of the airline, but refused to inject more cash into Virgin.

Virgin has over 1.5 billion in funding lined up, so this will protect the airline’s assets and shed costs before gaining access to those funds.

If you have miles I wouldn’t worry about them. Airlines fiercely protect their miles in bankruptcy court as the mileage program is one of the most profitable parts of an airline. As long as the airline is flying those should be safe.

Buy El Al Meals At Home

You might not be able to fly El Al, but you can still eat El Al!

El Al’s Israeli kitchen is now selling airline meals starting at just 13 shekels per meal:

Wait, nobody actually likes airline meals in the first place? Well at least this way you won’t forget how much you don’t actually like them!

 

El Al Cocaine Ring Busted

El Al’s head of security abroad has been busted as part of a cocaine ring operated by El Al employees that had the ability to bypass security checks. The coke was allegedly smuggled from South Africa into Israel.

Will this mean that Matmid points will now be valued in cents per kilo instead of cents per mile?

Will We See The Return Of All You Can Fly Deals?

During the Great Recession, airlines like JetBlue offered all you can jet passes to help with low demand. They even brought it back a year later.

Chinese airlines are now offering the same type of all you can fly deals.

Airlines are in a tough spot. On the one hand they want to make money and this would be a good way to do so. But on the other hand, airlines like JetBlue are promising empty middle seats, and that would be tricky to do with unlimited flying passes. But how long can airlines sustain a promise like that without going bankrupt?

United Will Send Its In-Flight Magazine To Elite Members

In an era where people are staying home, who would know that United stopped having an on-board magazine?

But advertisers still want to reach lucrative top-tier flyers and United Hemispheres will be mailed to all Platinum, 1K, and Global Services elites.

The magazine’s publisher will eat the shipping costs.

The August issue that will be mailed is the first to be published since April and it will feature “Three Perfect Days in Montana.”

I think “Three Perfect Days At Home” might be more apropos.

Déjà Vu All Over Again: Goodbye To BA001 

In a byegone era, the BA001 flight number referred due BA’s premier flight aboard the Concorde from London to JFK.

 

But flying at supersonic speeds was oh so 20th century. Sadly, I never got a chance to fly the Concorde before it was retired. Its final flight was 13 months before I started blogging here.

BA revived flight number 001 for the 32 seat all business class A318 from London City Airport to JFK. The flight had to stop in Shannon to refuel due to London City’s short runway, but passengers were able to go through US customs pre-clearance there and enter JFK as a domestic passenger.

But in an era where business travel isn’t expected to make a full recovery anytime soon, BA is killing its A318 fleet and with it BA001 from London City to JFK.

Hopefully BA will find a suitable replacement one day for BA001.

United Kills ExpressJet

United has many regional carriers that fly its planes with their lower cost regional labor. ExpressJet used to be owned by Continental before they were spun off in 2002. The airline even tried operating independently in the past, before larger airlines changed their contracts to make that impossible.

United owns over 100 ERJ-145, 50 seater Barbie Dream Jets and decided to cut costs by cutting ties with ExpressJet and moving some of their planes over to Cleveland based CommutAir, which will operate all of United’s ERJ-145s.

What will it mean for consumers? Probably not much, but I’d expect them to shrink the ERJ-145 fleet. That’s a mixed bag as the planes are not very comfortable, but they are surely better than the CRJ-200 “devil’s chariot” which unfortunately has not yet been killed off. It also means that some smaller cities may lose service as the ERJ-145 fleet is culled. It has been well over a decade since the plane stopped being manufactured.

Luckily United’s CRJ-550 creation fills the 50 seat market quite nicely and far more comfortably for passengers. I sure wouldn’t mind if they replaced every ERJ-145 and CRJ-200.

Corona Cruises Are Back?!?

Who thought this was a good idea?

Hurtigruten is back to operating cruises. Even in the best of times, cruises are floating petri dishes, but during a pandemic, really?

And so in the least surprising news ever, one of the first cruise ships back at sea had 40 passengers and crew test positive for COVID-19.

They’re still trying to trace passengers from recent trips that may also have been infected.

The ship is now docked in Tromsø, Norway, and future voyages are being cancelled.

Yes, that’s the same city (pronounced Troom-seh) where I almost wound up being stranded on our way to the high arctic in 2016…

Tromsø, Norway, March 2016 ©DansDeals

Hyatt’s Brutal 2nd Quarter

It’s no surprise that the entire travel industry is hurting, but the quarterly results being released are eye opening.

Here is Hyatt’s press release on their 2nd quarter results, with a loss of $236MM. The full earnings release is here.

Below is a comparison of RevPAR, occupancy, and ADR for Q2 2020 vs 2019.

RevPAR is the revenue per available room. That ranged from a measly $6.27 in revenue per room at Hyatt Centric hotels, down 96.6% from 2019, to $29.81 in revenue per available  ultra-luxury Park Hyatt room, down 87% from 2019.

Unsurprisingly the ADR, or average daily rate, is also down, though not nearly as much as RevPAR. I guess the logic is that lowering room rates wouldn’t stimulate more demand, but it would lower the rate paid by those that would stay there anyway.

Perhaps rates will drop further along in the recovery when lower rates will be able to stimulate more demand, which would lower ADR, but help the occupancy and RevPAR numbers.

 

Hyatt, if you’re trying to stimulate lots of demand to boost all of those numbers, just bring back Faster Free Nights!

Goodbye To The Park Hyatt Mallorca

My brother JJ and DDF member damaxer91 raved about their stays at the Park Hyatt Mallorca and I added it to my bucket list. It was a bargain with Hyatt points and they were great with kosher food accommodations.

 

And then came COVID-19.

The hotel has been closed since March and won’t reopen until next March at the earliest. And when it does it won’t be part of Hyatt anymore as Park Hyatt will lose its only European resort.

As AsherO would say, I sloozed!

The Travaasa Hana Will Join Hyatt 

The Travaasa Hana Resort on Maui has long been on my radar. I’ve driven the ethereal Road to Hana 3 times and it’s always glorious, but it’s also always a rush to get back home.

But the options to stay overnight in Hana are few and far between.

I first read about the hotel from Something Fishy’s Maui trip report when he rented an Airbnb type plane in Hana, only to show up with nobody home and no way in. He had no other option besides the Travaasa Hana.

Here’s hoping the Hyatt redemptions there will be valuable!

Starbucks Will Finally Offer Rewards Without Paying Via Gift Card

Starbucks has long required that you pay via gift card to earn rewards. That way they can keep locking you into reloading your gift card balance and allowing them to borrow money interest free.

They will finally allow rewards to be earned when using other forms of payment. Alas, you’ll only earn half the rewards if you do that.

For my money, I’d rather make the latte myself in my Nespresso machine. Tastes better for a fraction of the cost.

How Much Did Your School Get In PPP Forgiveable Loans?

If you’re feeling curious and/or nosey, you can view the name of every business that received a PPP grant greater than $150,000, along with the approximate amount they borrowed

While many private schools had their payrolls covered by the PPP, I haven’t heard of any that offered refunds yet. I’m not holding my breath 😉

Will COVID-19 Cause The Next Great Aliya Wave?

Based on current applications, Israel figures that they will absorb 100,000 new olim due to COVID-19.

Israel’s own COVID-19 response has been mixed, but people appear to be inspired to make the leap in situations like this.

Is the craziness in the world impetus for you to make Aliya?

Discovering the Real Resting Place of Rabbi Levi Yitzchok of Berdichev

Chabad.org has a fascinating story on how the true burial place of the famed Rabbi Levi Yitzchok Berdichever was hidden and eventually forgotten. Thanks to the local shluchim using the travel downtime to add heating, its real location was finally discovered.

Super Handshake: Splitting Lotto Winnings

2 friends shook hands in 1992 that if they ever won the Powerball they would share the earnings.

In June one of them won $22MM, and shocked his friend when he told him that he would honor the 28 year old deal by splitting the pot.

There are too many stories out there of people harming their fellow, it’s nice to be reminded that there are good people out there who stand by their word.

No Clorox Wipes Until Next Year? Just Get DansDeals Alerts!

Clorox is warning that customers shouldn’t expect to see disinfectant wipes on store shelves until next year.

The company has maxed out production, but demand is far outstripping the supply, perhaps more so than any other household item during the COVID-19 pandemic.

With instant deal notifications, DansDeals pivoted earlier this year from Israel flight deals to in-stock notifications of hard to find items due to coronavirus caused shortages.

 

 

 

2020 Isn’t All Bad, You Can Now Wear A Personal AC Unit

2 of my 5 brothers now live in Miami. I can’t visit them in the summer as I can’t handle the humidity.

Sony seeks to solve that with a personal AC unit that fits into an undershirt.

It’s only being sold in Japan for now where it was intended to make a big splash for the Olympics that were supposed to start now. It claims to be able to cool by 23 degrees or warm by 14 degrees.

Am I crazy for wanting to try it out? 😀

Lost Baggage? Here’s Where To Find It…Or Buy Someone Else’s

Airlines lose millions of bags annually. If you charged your ticket on your Chase Sapphire Reserve® card, you’ll make quite a bundle from delayed and lost baggage.

But where does it all go?

Here’s the story of the company that buys up all of the unclaimed baggage.

They finally joined the interwebs this year so you can search for your lost items as they’re sold to the world.

Well, whose hat is this?

Previous roundups

Catch up on what you missed!

Leave a Reply

44 Comments On "8/5/20 News Roundup: COVID-19 Updates, United 232 Survivor’s Guilt, Hyatt Woes, All You Can Fly Deals, El Al Meals At Home, Corona Cruises, Hyatt In Hana, Clorox Wipes, Lost Baggage, And More!"

All opinions expressed below are user generated and the opinions aren’t provided, reviewed or endorsed by any advertiser or DansDeals.

Yehuda

Love how they have 4 different sizes of the hassidic hat

Reply
August 5, 2020 2:56 pm
RG

If you look at the pictures of the hat you can see that somebody stamped their name and number inside!

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August 5, 2020 9:51 pm
gemarakop

well you could always check form 990 to see how much of a raise your schools executives got 🙂

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August 5, 2020 3:30 pm
Simcha

How much do shtreimels go for?

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August 5, 2020 4:00 pm
Srulky

I didn’t see any.

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August 5, 2020 5:51 pm
Abraham

I heard of a Chassidic School in NY that offered refunds to the parents

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August 5, 2020 4:42 pm
More Bang for your Buck

Excellent read as usual, but… Nothing from Sunday’s SpaceX splashdown?!?

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August 5, 2020 5:51 pm
Shmooger

That was done on a cash ticket with a big fuel surcharge

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August 5, 2020 6:24 pm
Jake

Very good!!!!!

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August 5, 2020 8:49 pm
Gavin

More shtuyot vaccine propaganda. Flu vaccine is 9% effective lol.

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August 5, 2020 8:43 pm
Dan

1. That’s not true. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

2. This isn’t the flu.

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August 5, 2020 9:03 pm
Gavin

Why? Researchers can only figure out that number in retrospect as the season is winding down. Generally speaking, though, the vaccine’s effectiveness can vary from as little as 10 percent to as much as 60 or 70 percent, says Dr. Maldonado—with 40 to 60 percent being the average rate of effectiveness.

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-effective-is-the-flu-shot

– Large range my friend. You should learn about this a bit more.

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August 5, 2020 9:50 pm
Dan

1. On what planet does “40 to 60 percent being the average rate of effectiveness” equal “9% effective?!?”

2. COVID-19 is not the flu. Full stop. It shows no signs of mutating like the flu. It does not act seasonally like the flu. It does not attack the body as the flu does. COVID-19 vaccine results so far are extremely positive.

Thanks for playing!

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August 5, 2020 9:57 pm
Gavin

I’m only commenting on the fact that you posted about the flu vaccine being the reason for less flu cases. Its false. Look up the research on covid misclassification. So many false numbers because magically influenza disappeared this year. Interesting…

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August 5, 2020 10:03 pm
Dan

If it’s 40-60% effective on average and far more than the normal people took the flu vaccine, I fail to see why that can’t be a relevant factor into the disappearance of the flu.

The only COVID misclassification is that it’s being severely underdiagnosed based on the massive number of excess deaths across the globe since March. Random stories don’t prove otherwise.

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August 5, 2020 10:06 pm
Gavin

Censoring my reply because its factual? Do you work for CNN?

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August 6, 2020 11:57 am
Dan

I’m not going to be a host for antivax propaganda/nonsense and don’t see the benefit of continuing down that path. Feel free to write a TLS op-ed if that’s what you’re looking for.

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August 6, 2020 1:18 pm
C\'mon

Seat belts only help 60% of the time, so why wear them?

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August 5, 2020 10:18 pm
Shmooger

Not to get a ticket!

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August 5, 2020 10:25 pm
yelped

Maybe fact check your own shtiyot b’agvaniot before spewing false numbers.

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August 5, 2020 9:55 pm
CLE

“Our local Jewish schools in Cleveland were planning on reopening until the County advised that schools remain closed”.

It appears they’re still planning to reopen…

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August 5, 2020 9:41 pm
Dan

They’re hoping to be allowed to. We shall see what actually happens.
What I’m more concerned about is what happens when it starts spreading in schools?

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August 5, 2020 10:08 pm
shaindel Steif

Anyone knows if New York enforces quarantine coming back from Florida.?

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August 6, 2020 12:11 am
Sam L

Dan- love the commentary! Keep it up! Looks like hard work.

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August 6, 2020 12:14 am
Dan

Thanks 🙂

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August 6, 2020 1:22 am
too tired

While many private schools had their payrolls covered by the PPP, I haven’t heard of any that offered refunds yet.

The Philadelphia Yeshiva refunded 15% of tuition due to their Covid-19 expenses having dropped by that amount (they still paid staff, and rented a campground in the Poconos for most of its mesivta). What’s really impressive is that they sent checks even to parents who don’t pay full tuition.

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August 6, 2020 2:23 am
Yael Aldrich

The MIT mask is just a copy of the Totobobo mask from Singapore. We got our family then for a trip to China in 2012. Right after Purim I dug them out and ordered new filters to last a year for everyone. http://www.totobobo.com

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August 6, 2020 9:07 am
ari

Yeshiva Spring Valley gave refunds in the form of credit for next year’s tuition

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August 6, 2020 10:55 am
too tired

Yes, and 500 other yeshivos who couldn’t afford to do that screamed bloody murder that YSV made everyone else look bad.

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August 6, 2020 11:45 pm
me

where does it say the names of bushiness?

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August 6, 2020 1:10 pm
rob

“Call me an optimist, but I’m tired of the articles saying that we’re at the end of business travel as we know it, or the end of anything else as we know it due to COVID-19.”

I think there is going to be a serious long term decline in business travel. Not because of safety fears but because many companies are realizing that the immense cost savings from remote work far outweighs any losses in productivity.

There will still be a need for business travel – conventions for example can’t easily be done remotely for example. But a lot of the week-to-week road warriors won’t be going week to week even when things are normal.

And while airline travel gets a lot of attention, it’s really all forms of commuting to work that will drastically decline – large public transportation systems such as NYC as Chicago are not going to be transporting nearly as many people to work daily.

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August 6, 2020 8:08 pm
Dan

Short-term absolutely.
I just don’t see a long-term decline happening.

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August 6, 2020 11:52 pm
rob

Oh it will happen. It’s already happening at my current job.

They are putting together long term plans to significantly reduce travel, completely independent from any virus. It’s purely a financial decision.

Over the last 5 months, while salespeople who were on the road weekly have been home, it had almost no impact on their ability to sell their product. Their revenue growth was closely in line with pre-COVID forecasts, but with a higher profit since costs were much lower.

When large consulting companies like Accenture or EY should *theoretically* be hit hard by travel restrictions, but in fact doing perfectly fine with all their resources stuck at home, you think them (or their clients) will still prefer to pay millions every week in travel expenses? Not likely.

And short term it won’t be as big an issue because commercial leases are usually 15+ years, but when it’s time for Company XYZ who is based out of Manhattan to renew rent, that they’ll want to pay $2000/sq ft just so their employees can sit in front of a computer in Manhattan instead of in their home?

Long term, unless you work in a job that can’t be done on a home computer with a zoom account, you will probably be working from home with a Zoom account.

And it will have nothing to do with health concerns.

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August 7, 2020 10:23 am
Dan

Sure it’s happening now, but come back to me in 3 years from now when the competition is willing to fly to close a sale and your company is not.

Who do you think is going to get the sale?

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August 7, 2020 10:25 am
rob

I didn’t say that business travel will be 0 – there will still be edge cases such as the one above where business travel will be necessary.

But most business travel isn’t closing a sale, or the Consumer Electronics show in Vegas. It’s the week to week road warriors who are consulting their clients but for the last 5 months have been doing it via video conferencing instead of in person

And in many cases, those clients realized over the last 5 months that the dropoff from having them fly 1000 miles to consult vs. doing it from their home is minimal. Certainly not enough to justify paying upwards of $1000/week in flights, hotels, rentals, meals etc. just to have him do it in person. And you can see it in the sales numbers – most consulting companies are still pulling in the same numbers they always were. No one is cancelling their contracts with Accenture or demanding to pay less in consulting fees just because the quality of “remote” consulting is lower than in person consulting.

I’m sure there will be some companies that will still prefer their consultants fly in weekly. And there will also be cases where a former weekly traveler will fly on occasion if there is significant reason to be there in person (closing a sale, a critical project milestone etc.).

But the average consultant road warrior traveling 45 weeks a year is going to go away. Some might be only on the road 30 weeks instead of 45. Some might be 10 weeks instead of 45. Some might be traveling once or twice a year. But the vast majority of them won’t be traveling 45 weeks a year.

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August 7, 2020 11:27 am
sports fan

Reminds me of sports after 9-11. Everyone was saying that no one will ever go into an arena again. Every packed building will be a terror target. Also economy wasn’t great and who has extra money for sports?
Well, it took 2 or 3 months, and attendance at sports games came roaring back…

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August 9, 2020 9:06 pm
rob

Not an apples to apples comparison

It came back because the safety fears went away.

But the fact that business travel will be in long term decline won’t be due to safety or due to virus….. it will be purely a financial decision. You can already start to see it playing out in some companies.

I agree 100% that if it was just about fears of flying a la 9/11 that within 3 weeks of a vaccine we would go back to normal. But it won’t be…. and it won’t be just airlines and business travel that will suffer.

I would not want to be someone whose livelihood is tied to leasing out Manhattan office real estate

Reply
August 9, 2020 11:07 pm
R

“… 35% of patients that did not have COVID-19 had T-cells that were reactive against the virus… 42% plus 35% would easily be within the realm of herd immunity.”

Or is it 42%+(35%×58%)=62.3%

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August 6, 2020 10:04 pm
A chosid

Dan, I always look forward to this weekly read! Great synopsis of interesting topics as usual. Much appreciated!

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August 6, 2020 10:54 pm
Dan

Thanks 🙂

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August 6, 2020 11:52 pm
jack

Too me a while to read through this time but thanks. Appreciative as always.

Reply
August 9, 2020 6:33 pm
pinay

I Received the following e-mail from Chase Ultimate Rewards regarding the cancelled return leg of an El Al Ticket purchased with Chase Ultimate Rewards Points to bring my son home from Yeshiva in March, what should be my next step?

Hello MY NAME,
Thank you for allowing Chase Ultimate Rewards Travel to address this matter. We apologize for any inconvenience you’ve experienced due to the delay in the refund process.
We have completed our investigation and have made the following determination.
After review of your account and the case details, we have found a flight with EL AL Israel Airlines scheduled for March 15th returning on April 26th. Upon review we have confirmed that the airline initiated a schedule change which resulted in the return flights being cancelled by the airline. We apologize for this inconvenience and we have submitted a refund request for the unused portion of the flight. Since the airline has inhibited our ability to offer a direct refund, the refund is ultimately up to the airlines discretion to complete. We see that a partial refund request has been submitted to the airline on 6/4, 6/8, 6/17 and 6/29, now these request normally can take the airline up to 10 weeks to review and determine if a refund is eligible, however due to the overwhelming number of refund requests this process could take longer for the airline to determine what the value of the unused portion of the flights is and complete the refund. We must wait until the airline has completed the partial refund for this flight, so we are able to complete the refund for your reward points to your account. If the airline declines to offer a refund for the unused portion of the flight a travel voucher may be an alternate option to retain the value of the return flight to be used towards a future booking with EL AL Israel Airlines. The details of this would be provided if the airline declines to complete a refund for the unused value of the flight. Please be assured we are working very hard to ensure that we can process a refund where the supplier has allowed us to and offer a supplier credit in certain other circumstances. We will provide you an update as soon as the airline has the opportunity to review and respond to our refund request.
Please accept our apologies for the inconvenience. While we are unable to provide the requested compensation at this time, please know we value you as a Cardmember and appreciate your business. We regret we are unable to provide you with a more favorable response.
If you have any questions, please call 1-888-511-5323 and request a supervisor. We’re available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.
We look forward to helping you with future travel plans.
Thank you for choosing Chase Travel.

Sincerely,
Jason Smith
Travel Consultant Supervisor
Chase Travel

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Reply
August 9, 2020 7:36 pm
Dan

File a DOT complaint?

Reply
August 9, 2020 7:41 pm
wpDiscuz